Cold War in space: the race for supremacy in orbit

The competition for supremacy in space has been gaining noticeably in intensity for some time now - driven primarily by the fundamental rivalry between the superpowers USA and China. The rapid militarization of space is thus becoming one of the greatest security policy risks of the 21st century. "The Cold War in space is shifting the global balance of power by revealing strategic dependencies and vulnerabilities, driving cyber warfare and the development of new types of weapons systems in space and creating new potential for conflict at an international level," says Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and head of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, in a recent analysis of the "Space Cold War".

Cyberattacks as a security risk

Space is increasingly becoming an arena for the exercise of geopolitical power, where countries such as China and Russia, but also Iran and North Korea ("CRINK") are openly challenging the USA. In particular, the dependence of modern societies on satellite-based infrastructure for communication, navigation and military applications poses a high security risk. Orbit has long been part of the critical infrastructure, which offers potential aggressors new opportunities for attack. Cross-domain operations in space and cyberspace are particularly dangerous, as cyber attacks could cause massive damage to modern information, communication and navigation systems - which are increasingly dependent on space-based infrastructure. The ability to disable satellites or disrupt signal transmission is becoming a central element of military scenarios. China in particular is pushing strategies in this regard and has already carried out several targeted attacks on critical systems and communication structures of the US armed forces. 

"Astropolitics" and global risk scenarios

Space is thus increasingly developing into a central domain of geopolitical strategies, where states are formulating and expanding their claims to power as part of a new "astropolitics". The increased focus of offensive actors on space is also leading to new threat scenarios and noticeable shifts in power on Earth. This aspect can be seen directly in the ambition of China and Russia to build a joint space station on the moon in the coming years. At the same time, the development of new anti-satellite systems, laser weapons and hypersonic gliding missiles is changing previous military concepts and causing a massive arms race in space. With its ambitious space programs, including multiple moon landings and its own space station, China is pursuing the explicit goal of assuming a dominant position in space. "Earth orbit now plays a central role in the strategic planning of the major powers. The ability to protect space infrastructure and prevent attacks from space is becoming a key factor in national security," explains Rapp. Entrepreneurs and professional investors need to understand and manage these new risks, but also take advantage of the new opportunities that arise in this dynamic environment.

The analysis „Space Cold War“: Massive Militarisierung des Weltraums als globales Risiko, has been published as a Cognitive Comment and can be downloaded in German in the download area of this page, as can our supplementary Cognitive Briefing "New Space": Das Weltall als Wirtschaftsraum der Zukunft.