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Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th US president is causing unrest around the world. In his inaugural speech, Trump emphasized American expansionism and outlined a radical US agenda that also includes distant regions such as Greenland and Panama. Apparently, Trump wants to replace the current world order with a system of strategic spheres of influence. This approach is not only extremely controversial - it also indirectly strengthens the position of declared US opponents such as Russia and China. Trump is thus forcing a dangerous break in global governance - with serious consequences worldwide. For entrepreneurs and investors, this results in new strategic risks, as Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and head of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, warns in his commentary.
The global post-war order has been under severe pressure for several years now. Actors such as China and Russia are pursuing a clearly revisionist agenda and asserting territorial claims. While Russia, in violation of international law, describes Ukraine as “part of its own territory”, China declares the island of Taiwan a “renegade province” and is planning its “reunification”. Both are global trouble spots with a high potential for escalation, as the war in Ukraine clearly shows. In both cases, international law is proving ineffective, as powerful autocrats are simply ignoring its rules. This rapid deterioration of the existing world order is dangerous, as it gives actors such as Russia or China strong incentives for political or even military aggression.
Under Trump 2.0, the USA will now also join this departure from a rules-based world order. As soon as he took office, Trump made tough US demands for the return of the Panama Canal. Trump also wants strategic control over Greenland, which belongs to Denmark under international law. From a purely power-political perspective, these goals are not completely nonsensical, as both territories are of enormous strategic value to the USA. However, the real problem is that Trump is ultimately legitimizing the offensive and neo-imperial agenda of Russia and China through such territorial claims. Basically, Trump wants to return to the world of the 19th century. He obviously has a scenario in mind in which major powers such as the USA seal themselves off from the world on the one hand, but at the same time build up or strengthen strategic zones of influence in a targeted manner.
The sharp realignment of US policy under Trump 2.0 and the foreseeable geopolitical consequences are manifesting a new global risk factor. Although Trump's notorious volatility makes it difficult to predict future developments, important basic lines of the new US policy are already clearly outlined. This directly results in an increased geopolitical risk premium, which must be explicitly taken into account by entrepreneurs and investors in all strategic considerations in future.
The FERI Cognitive Finance Institute has already published several detailed analyses on the geopolitical risks surrounding “Trump 2.0” - 2024 on the topic of “Trump reloaded” and recently the “Big Picture: 2025”. Both analyses are available in German in the download area on this page.