Early warning system: FERI Cognitive Finance Institute publishes “Big Picture 2025”

Today, the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute (FCFI) is releasing its new publication “Big Picture: 2025” for the first time. This “Big Picture View” condenses 35 key scenarios from a total of six fields of analysis along the central guiding question: What strategic changes and disruptive upheavals should entrepreneurs, investors and asset owners prepare for in the coming years? 

The new “Big Picture: 2025” thus goes far beyond conventional annual outlooks. It provides a comprehensive and multi-layered picture of the future, taking into account structural trends in various areas. The fact that many of these trends influence and reinforce each other is explicitly taken into account - an important aspect that traditional analyses often neglect. The Big Picture thus integrates a large number of complex future developments, the explosive nature of which is often not yet recognized or underestimated - even on the capital markets. The big picture therefore serves as a valuable early warning system for recognizing upcoming trends and trend breaks as early as possible. This offers the opportunity to prepare for future disruption, actively participate in strategic opportunities and minimize potential risks. 

“The FERI Cognitive Finance Institute's new Big Picture creates a coherent overall picture of global future trends that provides entrepreneurs and investors with unique information and can provide valuable strategic guidance,” explains Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and director of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. 

The range of topics covered by the new analysis includes numerous geopolitical developments, such as the conflict between the West and the new power structures surrounding Russia and China. “A new Cold War is already underway there, which is now even leading to rapid militarization in space,” explains Rapp. The possible consequences of the second Trump presidency - with the possible threat of a presidential dictatorship in the USA - are also analyzed. The Big Picture also sheds light on issues relevant to the capital markets, such as the unchecked US debt dynamic and the threat of the US Federal Reserve losing power - as well as the scenario of the USA as a global “crypto center”. The analysis also emphasizes the exponential rise of artificial intelligence and assesses the opportunities and risks of revolutionary technologies such as quantum computing and “new biotech”. The analysis also focuses on important future trends in the context of climate change, biodiversity and decarbonization, as well as the looming resource problem of the digital economy and the increasing threat of digital “deep fakes”.

Recognizing and overcoming blind spots

Since its foundation in 2016, the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute has pursued the goal of overcoming the explanatory deficits of traditional forecasting approaches and eliminating cognitive blind spots. The aim of the analyses is to use the innovative cognitive finance approach to generate a holistic, networked and future-oriented overall picture from a wide range of information - distributed across the six areas of knowledge: politics, society, economy, financial system, technology and environment. “Our new Big Picture publication pursues precisely this goal. For the first time, we are making large parts of our unique pool of research and knowledge available to the public in a comprehensive analysis,” emphasizes Rapp.

The “Big Picture: 2025” analysis is available in German in the download area on this page.